Cook County sales drop 12% in first month of new tax

So how's the nation's largest tax increase working out for us in Cook? Daily Herald:

Cook County sales dropped 11.94% in one month after the county instituted its new tax, new data released Tuesday shows, but just how much of that drop had to do with the tax is far from clear.

According to sales tax figures from the Illinois Department of Revenue, Cook County businesses reported $3.360 billion in sales in July, the first month the new 1.75% county sales tax took effect. Sales in June, when the county tax was 0.75%, were $3.816 billion.

However, a look at sales tax data from the last five years shows there has always been a drop from June to July, albeit never as large as this year. In 2004 the drop was 4.61%; in 2005, 7.57%; in 2006, 8.56%; in 2007, 6.67%.

The data is also highly seasonal, says John L. Mikesell, a professor of public finance and policy analysis at Indiana University, and a specialist in sales taxes.

"That means that it is inappropriate to simply look on a month-to-month basis," he wrote in an e-mail.

Instead, Mikesell looked at the last five July's.

"You can see that sales were following a rather consistent pace of increasing by around 3 percent each (July)," wrote Mikesell. Had that continued, July's sales should have been $3.628 billion. Instead, the actual number is about 8 percent lower than what the previous pace would have predicted for July.

But is that a result of the sales tax? It's too early to tell, Mikesell noted.

This would be worth a read!